In Probably Stolen, the fastest way to lose money is to pay a genuine price for a fake. Suppliers inflate values as a matter of routine, counterfeits circulate in every category, and the game gives you no scanner that beeps the truth — it gives you handbooks, a magnifier, and your own eyes. This guide explains how inspection and appraisal actually work in the demo, category by category.
1. Appraisal is paperwork, not a button
Serious categories come with official reference material. The food stamp handbook — issued by the Station Trade Commission — is the clearest example: it teaches you to compare the item in the inspection tray against known-genuine reference images, looking for spelling errors and sloppy fonts in the lettering, a missing or wrong logo, a broken security seal, and a damaged chip. The differences are meant to be visible at a glance once you know where to look.
That pattern repeats across the game. There are appraisal guides for cigarettes, prosthetic limbs, foodstuffs, and more, and an appraisal service that prices items for you. The notebook is not decoration — it is the tool that keeps a "rare find" from becoming an expensive lesson.
2. The per-category checklist
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| Category | The check | What goes wrong if you skip it |
|---|---|---|
Cigarette packs | Visual inspection before resale, per the official guide | Fakes pass through your hands and your name absorbs the blame |
Water | Must be tested and filtered; tooltips show a [TESTED] state and quality grade | Liability — contaminated water comes back on the seller |
Weapons | Permits and modifications; Class 1 permit is a scenario-level unlock | Inspections, confiscation, Security attention |
Chemicals | Recipes are closely guarded; value hides in the formula | You pay street price for diluted product |
Rare items | Full appraisal against the reference guides | Overpaying is the default outcome |
Food stamps | Lettering, logo, security seal, chip — and stamps only redeem if valid | Worthless paper and a wasted counter slot |
Cigarettes: the eyeball test
Packs are checked by sight before resale, with the handbook showing genuine and fake print side by side — down to how the brand name is spelled and set. It is the fastest check in the game and the one new players skip most, because a pack looks like a pack.
Water: test it, filter it, then sell it
Water is the demo's signature commodity — the Water Merchant scenario starts with a testing and purification kit for a reason. Untested water is a liability, not an asset: the item tooltip tracks whether a batch has been tested and what quality it graded at, and labels record what has been done to it since. Sell first and test never, and you own whatever happens downstream.
Rare items: the magnifier earns its keep
Prosthetics, pharmaceuticals, and oddities are where the money and the risk both live. The appraisal tray plus the relevant guide is the whole workflow: compare markings, check the reference diagrams, and only then talk price. The vial below is a pharmaceutical — the label, the seal, and the batch markings are the negotiation, before credits enter it.
3. The grey side: cutting, relabeling, and heat
Inspection cuts both ways. The same knowledge that spots a fake lets you make one: the game openly lets you cut product quality, pass counterfeits off as genuine with a fresh label, and move stolen goods at a discount. Two systems push back. Labels are visible in the item record — a [Label] entry follows the goods — and stolen items carry Heat, a percentage that represents how hot they are. One community screenshot shows a roll of toilet paper flagged [Stolen] at 25% Heat: trivial goods, real risk marker.
None of this is free money. It is a bet that Security's reach is shorter than your rent deadline — the factions guide in this column covers how that bet usually ends.
4. What a wrong call actually costs
Overpaying is the quiet cost: the margin you imagined never existed.
Confiscation and inspections hit weapons and contraband — the goods vanish and the attention stays.
The customer comes back. One official screenshot shows the note a seller received after bad water did harm: the buyer holds you responsible, in writing. Reputation damage outlives any single refund.
5. A working routine for every purchase
1. Identify the category first. The check you run depends on what the item is, not what the seller says it is.
2. Open the matching guide before the haggling starts. Price talk after inspection, never before.
3. Check the record, not the story. Labels, tested state, heat, permits — the item's own fields outrank the seller's pitch.
4. Price the risk in. A suspiciously cheap rare item is not a bargain until the appraisal says so.
5. Redeem paper properly. Food stamps redeem for Commissary Tokens only when valid — a forged stamp is worth nothing anywhere.
FAQ
Is there an automatic way to detect fakes?
No. The game gives you reference handbooks and an inspection tray; the judgment is yours. That is the core skill the whole economy is built on.
What does Heat mean on a stolen item?
Heat is a visible risk marker on stolen goods — the higher it is, the hotter the item. It sits in the item's record alongside its labels, and it is part of what you are pricing when you buy stolen stock.
Can I sell untested water?
Players do — and the game tracks liability for it. The Water Merchant start exists because tested, filtered water is the profitable version of the trade; untested water is the gamble.
Where do the appraisal handbooks come from?
They are in-game reference documents — the food stamp handbook is published by the Station Trade Commission — and they live alongside your other tools as you play.